CAPTAIN SAMS
forecast (noun)
a prophecy, estimate, or prediction of a future happening or condition.
forecast (verb)
1. to calculate or predict (some future event or condition) usually as a result of study and analysis of available pertinent data.
2. to indicate as likely to occur.
Merriam-Webster
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Sometimes forecasts are not correct and that was the case last night with the bird migration forecast as we only banded 18 new birds and had 2 recaptures today. The predicted model (1st pic below) showed high migration along the Atlantic coast from the Carolinas to north Florida. Rain in the central Appalachians was suppose to concentrate birds along the coast. Unfortunately, that did not happen as the actual bird migration map (2nd pic below) had very little movement along the coast. Overall, it appears that migration was not as intense across the eastern US as predicted so many of those birds may have chosen not to migrate at all last night. The rain should be cleared out tonight and that should open the door for birds to start moving south. The next three day have very favorable conditions for birds heading south, and I "forecast" us to be busy through Sunday.
-Aaron
.jpg) |
| Forecasted migration |
 |
| Actual Migration |
LITTLE BEAR
Wind significantly impacted bird volume today. 23 birds were processed today at Little Bear. American Redstarts and Common Yellowthroats continue to visit our nets.
Migrants stop over Kiawah Island to fuel up for their long journey to Central America. As bird skin's see-through, we take data on how much fat the birds have accumulated at our banding stations. Earlier this season, I took a picture of a Prairie Warbler with some fat underneath the skin. Today, we caught a Common Yellowthroat with even more fat.
-Jasmine
 |
| Common Yellowthroat (hatch year, sex unknown) |
| Species | Captain Sam's | Little Bear | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New | Recaps | New | Recaps | |
White-eyed Vireo | 1 | - | - | - |
Red-eyed Vireo | 1 | - | - | 1 |
House Wren | 1 | - | - | - |
Brown Thrasher | - | - | 1 | - |
Northern Waterthrush | - | - | 1 | 1 |
Black-and-White Warbler | 2 | - | - | - |
Common Yellowthroat | 8 | 1 | 9 | - |
American Redstart | 3 | - | 4 | - |
Palm Warbler (Western) | 1 | - | 4 | - |
Northern Cardinal | - | 1 | - | - |
Painted Bunting | 1 | - | - | 2 |
| Today's Banding Stats | Captain Sams | Little Bear | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| # Birds Banded | 18 | 19 | 37 |
| # of Recaptures | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| # of Species | 9 | 7 | - |
| Effort (net-hours) | 131.0 | 90.4 | 221.4 |
| Capture Rate (birds/100 net-hours) | 15.3 | 25.4 | 19.4 |
| # of Nets | 33 | 28 | - |
| 2026 Fall Cumulative Banding Stats | Captain Sams | Little Bear | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| # Birds Banded | 1,103 | 651 | 1,754 |
| # of Recaptures | 206 | 123 | 329 |
| # of Species | 39 | 44 | 53 |
| Effort (net-hours) | 5500.9 | 3458.8 | 8,959.7 |
| Capture Rate (birds/100 net-hours) | 23.8 | 22.4 | - |
| # of Days | 40 | 33 |
Banding Staff
Aaron Given (CS)